The new Taliban strategy is clear: Hit the Afghan security forces hard and begin the process to cripple them before Nato forces leave by 2014. At the same time they would ensure a lesser number of Afghan civilian casualties as this alone will help them win the hearts and minds of the people. This new Taliban game plan is evident from the latest statistics released by the United Nations the other day.

With periodic attacks against Afghan security forces, the Taliban plans to keep the Afghan fire burning. At the same time, the attacks on Nato forces would increase with the aim of dealing teaching them last minute lessons. The blitzkrieg, however, will begin when the last of the Nato soldier turns his back on Afghanistan. The mother of all attacks would come then.There is little doubt that President Hamid Karzai would have sensed this strategy. Hence, he too must be girding his loins for that day when the big do-or-die battle begins. Whether his forces can fight and win this battle – or series of crucial battles – remains to be seen. But the fact is that at this moment, they may not be in that position. It’s a known fact that though Afghan security forces number over 300,000, they do not have the training, the morale and the military equipment to fight the highly motivated and well-armed Taliban.

Karzai has numerous other problems to grapple with. Success in tackling them alone will help him gain the support of ordinary Afghans. One of the major thorny issues is corruption. A large slice of the delicious aid pie is definitely going into the pockets of politicians and bureaucrats and as a result a number of projects have been affected. Karzai is aware of this reality but he has shown a despicable weakness in tackling it. Not a single high level bureaucrat or politician has so far been arrested for a financial crime. The international community is aware of this pathetic state of affairs but is helpless to do anything because of Karzai’s impotence. In fact, with billions being channelled into the country in the coming years, the possibility of more money going into the deep pockets of Afghan officials is real and there is much worry in this context.

The time between now and 2014, when Nato forces leave, is crucial for Afghanistan. It is as crucial as the post-2014 period. And Karzai’s tasks are not easy. He has a lot of work to do to ensure that he is not forced to flee and the Taliban do not return to occupy the citadel of power in Kabul. The time to start engaging in these tasks is now and not later when it will be too late.