The defection of Syria's prime minister, nominally the second most powerful figure in the country after Bashar Al-Assad, is a major blow for the regime. However the defection of Riad Hijab and his reported joining of the revolutionaries goes even deeper than the sensational abandonment of Assad by a trusted lieutenant.
Three elements in Syrian society have helped sustain the Assad dictatorship. First there is the Alawite community from which Assad and most of his top people come. Then there are the other minorities such as the Druze and Christians, who fear being ruled by the country’s Sunni majority and would rather support the status quo however much they may disdain its dictatorial values. But finally, and perhaps most significantly, there has been a small and powerful group of Sunnis who have prospered under the regime and wish to keep the privileged positions that they have gained.
It is from these ranks that Riad Hijab was drawn. An apparently loyal Baath party member, he held two provincial governorships before being appointed minister of agriculture last year. Two months ago he was moved to the premiership. The loyalty of this prosperous group and the larger number of middle-class Sunnis, who have attached their commercial or employment stars to them, has been pivotal to the regime’s survival. For these Syrians, the violent and apparently incoherent change offered by myriad rival opposition groupings, did not, until now, offer anything concrete. They have stuck with Assad for fear of a disorganized and dangerous future with a different government.
However with Hijab’s flight, many other Sunnis will be starting to ask, like him, if they can go on giving even tacit support to a government that is prepared to butcher any number of its own people in a desperate attempt to cling to power.
There may be something else highly significant in Hijab’s defection suggesting that the Assad regime is losing its grip, at least certainly in terms of political savvy. The man who was Syria’s prime minister until Monday comes from the Deir Al-Zour region in the east of the country. So too did Nawaf Fares, who until a month ago was not simply his country’s top diplomat in Baghdad but also the head of the Uqaydat tribe. Fares joined the rebels in part because his region had become an opposition stronghold.
Ever since the start of the rebellion, there have been analysts arguing quietly that as long as Assad has the support of the minorities and most significantly the backing of wealthy Sunnis who dread the impact of political change, there was an outside chance that with the continued support of Moscow and Beijing, he might just survive the insurrection.
Such an assessment is clearly no longer feasible. Whether out of self-interest or genuine disgust, more and more top Sunnis, along with important Alawite and other minority figures, are abandoning the dictator because of his brutal assault on his citizens. Assad may not have been toppled as quickly as expected, but he is rocking on his pedestal and a spectacular crash to the ground can be expected in the not too distant future.