Damascus' threat to use chemical and biological weapons — as a last-ditch attempt to avert an inevitable defeat — should ring the alarm bell in the region. Just imagine Iran with nuclear capabilities and delivery system! Iranians can then blackmail the key countries in the Middle East and put the whole region at the mercy of its irrational and messianic leadership. If anything, the world should get its act together and prevent Iran from gaining this capability when the world can afford doing that.
Contrary to the regime’s longstanding claim, it transpired that Syria owns chemical and biological weapons. Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi issued a veiled threat that his country would not hesitate to use whatever at its arsenal to counter any external intervention. “No chemical or biological weapons will ever be used…unless Syria is exposed to external aggression,” he said.
The message is directed at the United States and neighboring countries in particular. Neighboring countries express their fears of the Syrian weapons of mass destruction and the probability of the falling of these weapons into the hands of the rebels or Hezbollah. Just a few days ago, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak made it clear that the Israeli Army would interfere to prevent the shipment of nonconventional weapon to Hezbollah. Jordan is concerned of such development as well.
Meanwhile, Assad forces are taking advantage of the inaction of the international community and continuing to kill Syrians. Weak as it may look, Assad believes that he is still protected by Russia which is granting him all time needed to finish off the Syrian uprising. While diplomacy has gone nowhere after the colossal failure of Annan, all eyes are truing to the United States which promised to work outside the frame of the UN Security Council to force Assad to leave.
So far, Washington’s quest for a nuanced approach that keeps it from taking center stage in the conflict has not made things easier. The death toll has exceeded 17,000.
Over the last few weeks Assad considered using chemical weapons against those who try to unseat him. Nonetheless, pressure from both Moscow and Washington complicated Assad’s calculation and forced him to forego such a disastrous path. Many analysts argue that chemical weapons can only be used against external intervention. And yet, Damascus’ tricky game has pushed the United States to think of securing the weapons in case the regime falls.
In light of the unfolding events, both Russia and the Untied States have mutual interest in controlling the chemical weapons.
The fear is that once Assad loses control, the chemical weapons can easily fall into the hands of militant groups. For the Kremlin, chaos in a post-Assad Syria poses risks to Moscow. The situations will be even worse in case the nonconventional weapons disappear. But whether this will shift Russia’s stand on the ongoing conflict is not yet clear.
If anything, Assad’s position on chemical and biological weapons as an act of desperation by someone on his last breath. The Syrian regime is blackmailing the whole region. In other words, it is his way or the highway. Assad’s implicit threat to make everyone in the region pay a price for his people’s uprising can be of grave consequences. If he succeeds in deterring the external forces from intervening forcefully to allow for a transition in Syria, other revisionist states in the region can learn the lesson. Iran is watching the events closely hoping to reap the benefit.
The West as well as the Arab countries will face a far difficult situation in case Iran manages to go nuclear. Iran’s blackmail will know no bounds. This is the lesson that the international community needs to learn from Assad’s threat to put his arsenal of chemical weapons in use.
For this reason, I believe that the battle after Syria should focus on Iran. The latter’s attempt to gain nuclear weapons and its messing up in the region should not be tolerated. There should be a price tag on Iran’s evasiveness and negative role in the region.
In brief, getting rid of Assad will change the strategic equation in the region and will weaken Iran. Tehran, in this case, will be exposed and can be dealt with accordingly. But failure to deal effectively with Assad in the coming weak may push Iran to accelerate its nuclear program!
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