Only those living in the realm of fools would have expected the Al Qaeda to accept defeat in Iraq and vanish after the relentless American onslaught and ‘surge’ against them. Once the Americans turned tail and fled from that country, after realising the futility of their war, the Al Qaeda was expected to make a big comeback.

And they surely have come back despite their depleted strength. The latest bombing blitz, killing more a 100 people and wounding a larger number of people, shows that no one can wish them away and they are here to stay. It would not be surprising if they got stronger with the passage of time and their attacks gained in intensity.

There is little doubt that Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki is in a jam. With the Al Qaeda on one side and followers of Moqtada Al Sadar and other detractors on other flanks, he is certainly in an unenviable position, which will be to the liking of his numerous political opponents.

What he will do to quell the violence remains to be seen but the truth is that nothing much can be done even if the security forces, which do not have too many sharp teeth now, becomes stronger. Against such a background, charges that he is not decisive enough will be heard in the coming days.

There may even be demands that Maliki must make way for another leader, but he can be expected to walk a tightrope and stay on. Maliki, no doubt, has become a master in the great game of political survival over the years.

Iraq has a parallel not too far away. In Afghanistan, from where western forces will move out by 2014, something similar may happen. Al Qaeda’s offshoot, the Taliban, is playing the same game there. Involved for the time being in hit and run attacks that have been fended off by the semi-trained and semi-armed Afghan security forces and coalition troops, the group is waiting for the day when the last of the western forces will leave the country.

All-out attacks can then be expected. And President Hamid Karzai’s position is no different from that of Maliki. Strong to some extent, he also has enough detractors. With another factor, the high level of corruption, going against him, Karzai’s troubles are deep. Worse is his inability to do much with not a single arrest and case for corruption being recorded despite millions of aid dollars going down the deep pockets of scores of politicians and bureaucrats.

The West has forsaken Iraq. It is on the verge of becoming blind to Afghanistan. The future of these countries is now in the hands of their leaders who will be tested by the extremists at every turn. And no one can predict their future with any degrees of exactness. The suspense will be too much to bear.