Home Page - Gulf in the Media
HomePoliticsEconomy                               Set Gulfinthemedia.com as home page
Opinions
"Postings of opinions published in the Gulf and international newspapers
 Print  Send This Page
Save Listen to this Article
Erdogan Threats as an Alternative to Oglu's Diplomacy?   

Al Hayat - 25 April, 2012
Author: George Semaan

In light of the new wave of tensions between Ankara and Baghdad, Turkey’s eastern gates will no longer be wide open. Indeed, during the last three years, Davutoglu’s diplomacy endured consecutive setbacks and became engaged in an open confrontation on more than one front, from Israel to Russia, to Iran, Iraq and Syria. Hence, it will face decisive choices in parallel to the emergence of the new map of the Greater Middle East, amid the transformations witnessed in the region and both their expected and unexpected repercussions.

Turkey has never found itself in such a sensitive spot. Since 2002, the Justice and Development Party tried to turn it into an unavoidable power between two worlds and a strategic position between the East and the West. It thus resided on contradicting, even conflicting edges, sought rapprochement with Europe without this affecting its solid relations with the United States, and attempted to build strategic partnerships with neighboring states in the Greater Middle East, as well as on the outskirts of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia, including its Muslim states and the Caucasus. It accomplished a lot, from its role in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan, to its mediation in the peace process in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear file. As to its zero-problem policy, it allowed its economy and commerce to prosper and grow at a fast pace, to the point where it appeared that Ankara was no longer in a hurry to meet the European Union conditions to accede to the EU.

Turkey benefited from the dismantlement of the regional order in the Middle East, the mounting conflict between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the weakness which affected Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But as the picture drastically changed in the region with the eruption of the Arab spring, it found itself at a crossroads. Indeed, it was no longer able to live in two worlds or along two conflicting courses, which will apparently never converge. It was no longer able to combine the contradictions in one policy by hosting – for example – part of NATO’s missile shield, while reassuring Russia or Iran about its neutrality and ability to mediate in the nuclear issue. It could no longer present itself as an ideal model for the new regimes of the Arab spring, sponsor the Syrian opposition in the battle to topple the regime in Damascus and agree with Moscow and Tehran over the future of Syria. It could no longer engage in coordination with the Arab League member states and especially the Gulf states, and convince the Iranian command it is standing at an equal distance between all the sides.

The peoples that underwent the Arab spring expressed the rise of Sunni political Islam which will in no way stand alongside Iran that has lost a wide portion of Arab sympathy for several reasons, including the utter support it is offering to the regime in Damascus and the adoption of an escalation policy toward the Gulf states, the last facets of which having been seen in President Ahmadinejad’s visit to the occupied Emirati Island of Abu Musa, and the threats it is issuing every day, either toward Bahrain and its neighbors or toward Turkey which used to present itself as a model for the rising regimes in the Arab world. At this level, Tehran’s disgruntlement vis-à-vis the Arab and Western promotion of this “moderate” model represented by Turkey is no secret to anyone, along with Russia’s non-reassurance toward Ankara’s support and welcoming of the Arab uprisings.

But the Arab spring was not the only reason behind the tensions between Turkey and Iran, and their divergent positions toward the Syrian crisis were not the ones that caused the escalation of the problem. The situation grew more complicated after Turkey hosted NATO’s missile shield, which is perceived by the Islamic Republic and Russia as being primarily directed against them. Ankara widened the confrontation with Tehran, while the developments in Iraq generated new tensions. Indeed, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only received Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi who is wanted by Baghdad for trial, but also joined the president of the Kurdistan province, Massoud Barzani, in addressing harsh criticisms against Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Moreover, the statements exchanged between them featured a sectarian tone that could escalate the sectarian conflict throughout the region. Hence, Ankara clearly sided with Arab and Gulf capitals in the face of the policy adopted by the leader of the State of Law Coalition and his positions which go in line with Tehran’s.

There is no need to explain the reasons pushing Turkey to attack Al-Maliki’s government. Since the beginning, Turkey stood behind the al-Iraqiya bloc and its leader Iyad Allawi, and was not reassured by the Iranian support enjoyed by the leader of the State of Law Coalition. Furthermore, Erdogan’s government did not appreciate the policy of exclusion and monopolization followed by Al-Maliki, along with his government’s excessive defense of the Syrian regime and his policy toward his Gulf neighbors and the Bahraini crisis. Beyond that, Ankara fears the undermining of the balance or the current quotas system, as this could undermine the relations between Iraq’s sectarian, denominational and ethnic components and allow one side to prevail over the other in a way that leads to the increase of Iranian influence in the country and threatens its unity and independence - with all the repercussions that this could carry on all the neighbors, mainly Turkey.

The honeymoon between Ankara and Tehran did not last long. Two years ago, Erdogan - along with Brazil - went against the Western wish and tried in vain to keep the chalice of the sanctions away from Iran. But a few days ago, Tehran opposed Istanbul’s hosting of the last talks with the P5+1 states, and was able to move the second meeting to Baghdad. Moreover, the resistance front that was announced by Ahmadinejad during his visit to Lebanon two years ago and in the context of which he placed Turkey, alongside Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, never saw the light. But despite that, there is still a thin line linking the two countries, considering that they both need each other. Indeed, commercial exchange between them amounted to around $ 16 billion last year, while Iran needs Turkey in light of the blockade and the sanctions. As to the latter, it does not wish to cut the last ties since it imports its oil and gas needs from the Islamic Republic (via gas pipelines from Tabriz to Ankara), as well as from Russia. Moreover, there is the issue of the Kurds in Iraq which imposes coordination between the two countries to confront any Kurdish aspiration to establish an independent state.

The mounting alignment in the Middle East and the international divide over the developments witnessed in it, will force Turkey to reconsider its policy and diplomacy. The more the Syrian crisis is prolonged, the more complicated the situation in Iraq becomes and the more relations between Iran, Russia and Asian powers such as China among others are enhanced, while Turkey will find itself obligated to drastically change its policy, and maybe even its direction. So will it turn toward Europe and NATO once again, or will it deepen its growing relations with the Arab states that perceive it as being a force that could tilt the flawed balance of powers in favor of the Islamic Republic of Iran the other way?

The policy of intimidation, warnings and threats to intervene launched by Erdogan during his campaign against Al-Maliki’s government will not change anything on the ground. It rather reveals Turkey’s weakness and confusion in light of the failures which affected its foreign policy following the accomplishments it had secured throughout the years which preceded this drastic change at the level of the regional map. There is no need to recall the outcome of Ankara’s positions toward Israel and the threats it issued to lift the blockade which has been imposed on Gaza since the Israeli war on the Strip at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, and after the Marmara Ship massacre. There is no need to recall the threats issued by the Turkish officials on the eve of the eruption of the uprising in Syria, to the point where some thought that Turkey was going to imminently mobilize its troops in order to protect the demonstrators, if not to try and topple the regime in Damascus.
 
Thank you, UAE
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-22
Author : Abdallah Buwair
I read a story in a local newspaper titled 'Humanitarian Leader Al-Sabah lights up UAE capital's sky', which covered an operetta held in Abu Dhabi recently to commemorate HH the...
The Turkish conundrum
Source : Khaleej Times  
Date : 2014-10-22
Author : Mahir Ali
Turkey's decision, announced on Monday, to permit Kurdish fighters to percolate across its border with Syria to aid the defence of Kobani against the ISIS came as something of a...
How Iran will benefit from regional unrest
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2014-10-22
Author : Osama Al Sharif
Iran could emerge as a winner from the open-ended war on the self-ascribed Islamic State (IS), which has shifted attention from Tehran's attempt to expand its sphere of influence and...
Silence of intellectuals and emergence of IS
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2014-10-22
Author : Mohammed Fahad Al-Harthi
The rapid rise of the so-called Islamic State has exposed clear fault-lines in the Arab world, not least the failure of Arab intellectuals to stand up and be counted in...
When the Terrorists Become 'Activists'
Source : Asharq Al-Awsat  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Salman Aldossary
Saudi Arabia has issued a death sentence for a Saudi Shi’ite religious figure, Nimr Al-Nimr. The charges that have been proven against him are numerous and quite varied....
ISIS is real, not a nightmare
Source : Asharq Al-Awsat  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Prior to June 6, Iraq's former prime minister, Nuri Al-Maliki, treated warnings about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) with disdain, claiming reports about the group were meant...
Efforts to conscript Turkey
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Yousef Awadh
It is glaring that the international community has reached the dead end in its bid to persuade Turkey to join the international actions against DAESH. Through the statements made by...
Need for more self-employed entrepreneurs in the Sultanate
Source : Oman Daily Observer  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Ali Ahmed al Riyami
While the number of Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the Sultanate is on the increase, there are still not enough individuals with entrepreneurial spirit going into business for...
Capital markets and global oil price fallout
Source : Oman Daily Observer  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Lo'ai Batainah
The change in investors' sentiment and decisions means a lot for analysts and observers; it means a shift in investors' appetite and unwillingness to face any possible financial or operational...
Happiness index
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Labeed Abdal
The happiness index was launched recently in Dubai as a unique initiative to detect people's level of contentment from government services. This is a positive step that gives the impression...
The Three-Minute Policy
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Thaar Al-Rashidi
In view of the extreme fogginess overwhelming our political practices where visibility is much less than one meter in most cases, it is hard to predict what might happen tomorrow....
Protecting scholars in war-torn states essential for rebuilding
Source : Gulf Times  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Mark A Angelson and Allan E Goodman
The application from an Iraqi university professor to the Scholar Rescue Fund was chilling. It described how he had been pressured relentlessly by a local militia to promote its agenda...
Muddy anti-terrorism policy
Source : Gulf Today  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Vijay Prashad
The United States and its allies continue to bomb northern Iraq and Syria. The purported target is the ISIS, whose territory stretches across the borders of the two countries. The...
Who will help Turkey help Kobane?
Source : The Peninsula  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Mevlüt Çavuolu
The plight of the small town of Kobane has become the focus of the world’s attention amid the devastation and misery of Syria. With each day the reign of terror...
Who supplied Saddam's germ weapons?
Source : Khaleej Times  
Date : 2014-10-21
Author : Eric S. Margolis
While covering Iraq in 1990, I discovered the United States and Britain had been secretly building a germ weapons arsenal for Iraq to use against Iran in the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq...
Total 200 Results in 14 Pages
  2 
For more news, views and reports about this topic, please subscribe
to GRC website: www.grc.net
Thu Oct 23, 2014| 28-ذو الحجة-1435هـ
Military vows to protect Kingdom 
Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power shifts toward renewable energy
Shia rebels, Qaeda fight bloody battle in Yemen
Opec needs oil cut of at least 500,000 bpd: Libya official
Iraqi Kurds to send fighters to Kobane
Qatar inflation may be 'highest' in GCC
Iranian human rights lawyer stages protest
Net income ratio for Kuwaitis at 72.1pct: Statistics Bureau
GCC plans changes in school curricula to fight extremism
Oman's first wind power plant to help reduce energy subsidies
Qatar reports second MERS case in 10 days
Gulf markets rally further on solid 3rd quarter results
Saudi remains world's leading UN aid donor
DP World welcomes first vessel to new terminal
35 people killed, 78 others injured in two bombs in Baghdad
UAE set for third largest aviation market by 2018
    Newspaper Editorials
Clever UN move in Gaza?
Emirati sisters' case a shining example of UAE care
More>>  
    Opinions
Re-drawing the map of the Levant
The outstanding questions
More>>  
    GCC Press Agencies
Day's main stories from the GCC Press Agencies
    Reports
Justice in Transition in Yemen
The United Arab Emirates (UAE): Issues for US Policy
More>>  
    Bank Reports
GCC Markets Performance – May 2014
Saudi Arabia: Baseline Macroeconomic Forecast 2014-16
More>>  
    GRC Analysis
Saudi Arabia and the ASEAN Periphery: Cambodia, Myanmar, and Brunei
NATO and the Future of Gulf Security.
Saudi-Vietnam Relations
    GRC Commentary
Price of not heeding Kingdom's advice
On Relations between Rulers and Citizens: The Need for a New Social/Political Contract in the GCC States
Key Issue Facing the Saudi Ruling House.
    GRC Book Review
Beyond Regionalism? Regional Cooperation, Regionalism and Regionalization in the Middle East
India, GCC and the Global Energy Regime: Exploring Interdependence and Outlook for Collaboration.
    GRC Press Release
Gulf Research Center press releases to the media
    GRC Publications
Labor Market Integration in the GCC Countries
Integration Processes in Latin America
GCC’s External Trade Integration: An Assessment
    GRC Newsletters/Bulletins

Enter your email to get the Newsletter
Go
      
Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Terms & Conditions | About Us |
Weather | Qibla Directions | Hijri Date Conversion Tool
Full Page :total time:0  |   16-- 16 Middle Page :0  --   | Right : 16 - 16--en--sess-enreq-en-coming