Home Page - Gulf in the Media
HomePoliticsEconomy                               Set Gulfinthemedia.com as home page
Opinions
"Postings of opinions published in the Gulf and international newspapers
 Print  Send This Page
Save Listen to this Article
Erdogan Threats as an Alternative to Oglu's Diplomacy?   

Al Hayat - 25 April, 2012
Author: George Semaan

In light of the new wave of tensions between Ankara and Baghdad, Turkey’s eastern gates will no longer be wide open. Indeed, during the last three years, Davutoglu’s diplomacy endured consecutive setbacks and became engaged in an open confrontation on more than one front, from Israel to Russia, to Iran, Iraq and Syria. Hence, it will face decisive choices in parallel to the emergence of the new map of the Greater Middle East, amid the transformations witnessed in the region and both their expected and unexpected repercussions.

Turkey has never found itself in such a sensitive spot. Since 2002, the Justice and Development Party tried to turn it into an unavoidable power between two worlds and a strategic position between the East and the West. It thus resided on contradicting, even conflicting edges, sought rapprochement with Europe without this affecting its solid relations with the United States, and attempted to build strategic partnerships with neighboring states in the Greater Middle East, as well as on the outskirts of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia, including its Muslim states and the Caucasus. It accomplished a lot, from its role in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan, to its mediation in the peace process in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear file. As to its zero-problem policy, it allowed its economy and commerce to prosper and grow at a fast pace, to the point where it appeared that Ankara was no longer in a hurry to meet the European Union conditions to accede to the EU.

Turkey benefited from the dismantlement of the regional order in the Middle East, the mounting conflict between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the weakness which affected Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But as the picture drastically changed in the region with the eruption of the Arab spring, it found itself at a crossroads. Indeed, it was no longer able to live in two worlds or along two conflicting courses, which will apparently never converge. It was no longer able to combine the contradictions in one policy by hosting – for example – part of NATO’s missile shield, while reassuring Russia or Iran about its neutrality and ability to mediate in the nuclear issue. It could no longer present itself as an ideal model for the new regimes of the Arab spring, sponsor the Syrian opposition in the battle to topple the regime in Damascus and agree with Moscow and Tehran over the future of Syria. It could no longer engage in coordination with the Arab League member states and especially the Gulf states, and convince the Iranian command it is standing at an equal distance between all the sides.

The peoples that underwent the Arab spring expressed the rise of Sunni political Islam which will in no way stand alongside Iran that has lost a wide portion of Arab sympathy for several reasons, including the utter support it is offering to the regime in Damascus and the adoption of an escalation policy toward the Gulf states, the last facets of which having been seen in President Ahmadinejad’s visit to the occupied Emirati Island of Abu Musa, and the threats it is issuing every day, either toward Bahrain and its neighbors or toward Turkey which used to present itself as a model for the rising regimes in the Arab world. At this level, Tehran’s disgruntlement vis-à-vis the Arab and Western promotion of this “moderate” model represented by Turkey is no secret to anyone, along with Russia’s non-reassurance toward Ankara’s support and welcoming of the Arab uprisings.

But the Arab spring was not the only reason behind the tensions between Turkey and Iran, and their divergent positions toward the Syrian crisis were not the ones that caused the escalation of the problem. The situation grew more complicated after Turkey hosted NATO’s missile shield, which is perceived by the Islamic Republic and Russia as being primarily directed against them. Ankara widened the confrontation with Tehran, while the developments in Iraq generated new tensions. Indeed, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only received Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi who is wanted by Baghdad for trial, but also joined the president of the Kurdistan province, Massoud Barzani, in addressing harsh criticisms against Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Moreover, the statements exchanged between them featured a sectarian tone that could escalate the sectarian conflict throughout the region. Hence, Ankara clearly sided with Arab and Gulf capitals in the face of the policy adopted by the leader of the State of Law Coalition and his positions which go in line with Tehran’s.

There is no need to explain the reasons pushing Turkey to attack Al-Maliki’s government. Since the beginning, Turkey stood behind the al-Iraqiya bloc and its leader Iyad Allawi, and was not reassured by the Iranian support enjoyed by the leader of the State of Law Coalition. Furthermore, Erdogan’s government did not appreciate the policy of exclusion and monopolization followed by Al-Maliki, along with his government’s excessive defense of the Syrian regime and his policy toward his Gulf neighbors and the Bahraini crisis. Beyond that, Ankara fears the undermining of the balance or the current quotas system, as this could undermine the relations between Iraq’s sectarian, denominational and ethnic components and allow one side to prevail over the other in a way that leads to the increase of Iranian influence in the country and threatens its unity and independence - with all the repercussions that this could carry on all the neighbors, mainly Turkey.

The honeymoon between Ankara and Tehran did not last long. Two years ago, Erdogan - along with Brazil - went against the Western wish and tried in vain to keep the chalice of the sanctions away from Iran. But a few days ago, Tehran opposed Istanbul’s hosting of the last talks with the P5+1 states, and was able to move the second meeting to Baghdad. Moreover, the resistance front that was announced by Ahmadinejad during his visit to Lebanon two years ago and in the context of which he placed Turkey, alongside Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, never saw the light. But despite that, there is still a thin line linking the two countries, considering that they both need each other. Indeed, commercial exchange between them amounted to around $ 16 billion last year, while Iran needs Turkey in light of the blockade and the sanctions. As to the latter, it does not wish to cut the last ties since it imports its oil and gas needs from the Islamic Republic (via gas pipelines from Tabriz to Ankara), as well as from Russia. Moreover, there is the issue of the Kurds in Iraq which imposes coordination between the two countries to confront any Kurdish aspiration to establish an independent state.

The mounting alignment in the Middle East and the international divide over the developments witnessed in it, will force Turkey to reconsider its policy and diplomacy. The more the Syrian crisis is prolonged, the more complicated the situation in Iraq becomes and the more relations between Iran, Russia and Asian powers such as China among others are enhanced, while Turkey will find itself obligated to drastically change its policy, and maybe even its direction. So will it turn toward Europe and NATO once again, or will it deepen its growing relations with the Arab states that perceive it as being a force that could tilt the flawed balance of powers in favor of the Islamic Republic of Iran the other way?

The policy of intimidation, warnings and threats to intervene launched by Erdogan during his campaign against Al-Maliki’s government will not change anything on the ground. It rather reveals Turkey’s weakness and confusion in light of the failures which affected its foreign policy following the accomplishments it had secured throughout the years which preceded this drastic change at the level of the regional map. There is no need to recall the outcome of Ankara’s positions toward Israel and the threats it issued to lift the blockade which has been imposed on Gaza since the Israeli war on the Strip at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, and after the Marmara Ship massacre. There is no need to recall the threats issued by the Turkish officials on the eve of the eruption of the uprising in Syria, to the point where some thought that Turkey was going to imminently mobilize its troops in order to protect the demonstrators, if not to try and topple the regime in Damascus.
 
JASTA: Barking up the wrong tree
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-28
Author : Dr. Saad Alsubaie
On Nov. 13, 1995, Al-Qaeda launched its first terrorist attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, aimed at both the US and Saudi Arabia. The car-bombing attack, which targeted a joint US-Saudi...
Syria and the American elections
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-28
Author : Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Although the US elections begin on Nov. 8, the elected president will not set foot in the White House before Jan. 20, when he or she performs the oath....
The return of the prodigal son
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-28
Author : Faisal J. Abbas
It was in 1996 when I left my hometown of Jeddah. I was a teenager at that time and my initial destination was an international boarding school abroad. Little did...
King Salman … money less precious than nations
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Is it possible for the citizens of any occupied country to live in material comfort and dignity or the country will use all of its capabilities to steer the cup...
Al-Houthi and the ousted … declared bankrupt
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Ahmed Al-Jarallah
The decision of the legitimate Yemeni government to relocate the Central Bank from Sanaa to Aden - the temporary capital city of Yemen, reveals the extent of the rebels' lack...
The activists who stood up to Iran when Obama wouldn't
Source : The Peninsula  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Eli Lake
Iran's President, Hassan Rowhani, has persuaded most Western elites that he is a moderate worthy of deference. Big-shot journalists respectfully interview him. Former senior US officials dine with him. European...
Pain persists without an Opec agreement
Source : The National  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : John Sfakianakis
As Opec and Russia are preparing to meet in Algiers to discuss the prospect for an output agreement, oil producers have been watching their fiscal revenues slump....
Need to overhaul education system
Source : Saudi Gazette  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Marzooq Bin Tanbak
After a long vacation that lasted for three months, students and teachers have returned to their schools, colleges and universities to start a new academic year. Schools and universities have...
Saudi diplomatic drive from Beijing to New York
Source : Saudi Gazette  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Khaled M. Batarfi
In just three days (from Sept. 19 to Sept. 21), Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Naif, deputy prime minister and minister of interior, managed to participate in sixteen activities. On Monday,...
US-Saudi partnership offers 'mine' of opportunities
Source : Saudi Gazette  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Joseph W. Westphal
The strong and enduring partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia is the foundation of our close cooperation in matters of security, commerce, education, health, agriculture, science and technology,...
Syrian north redrawing Mideast map
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Eva J. Koulouriotis
Six years since the start of the Syrian revolution, the Syrian regime and its Iranian and Russian allies have killed more than half a million, displaced more than eight million...
Story of success
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Mohammed Fahad Al-Harthi
Arab News is the most prominent and influential newspaper, and a school of journalism. We have been through so many important experiments, during which we have been keen to ensure...
Solution for Syria recedes
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2016-09-27
Author : Linda Heard
It was almost in the bag. US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov thrashed out a cessation of hostilities for months to allow aid convoys...
'Bravo' … Obama
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2016-09-26
Author : Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Bravo Barrak Obama! You deserve a pat on the back for realizing the extent of risk the bill on 'Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act' (JASTA) poses to the United...
What prolongs wars in Syria, Iraq
Source : Gulf Today  
Date : 2016-09-26
Author : Michael Jansen
Over the decades Washington has created a tangled and tattered cat's cradle of relationships in this region, undermining US interests and promoting conflict here....
Total 200 Results in 14 Pages
  2 
For more news, views and reports about this topic, please subscribe
to GRC website: www.grc.net
Fri Sep 30, 2016| 27-ذو الحجة-1437هـ
No peace deal in Yemen as long as Houthi militias exist: Al-Assiri
Kuwait calls for nuclear weapon-free Middle East
Qatar posts 30% jump in trade surplus to QR8.69bn in August
Strong US-Saudi ties will weather JASTA impact - Fahad Nazer
Iran, Russia sign 11 documents on drugs, medical equipments
Gulf Arab states warn of fallout from US Congress's Saudi 9/11 law
Israel worried over US-GCC arms deal
Obama defends Syria policy as battle rages on
OPEC sets output target at 32.5 - 33 mb/d
Prominent Americans label JASTA 'badly misguided legislation'
Syria talks very difficult with bombs falling: UN envoy
Why the US has most to lose from 9/11 law
Oman, Italy to enhance defence ties
State of Qatar backs legitimacy in Yemen
  Op-Ed
India, Pakistan must return to negotiating table
Starving young victims of Boko Haram need help
New impetus to Turkish-Saudi alliance
Iran and Daesh are JASTA's only beneficiaries
More>>  
    Reports
GCC Banking Sector Quarterly - 2Q16
GCC Markets Performance - July 2016
More>>  
    GCC Press Agencies
Day's main stories from the GCC Press Agencies
    GRC Analysis
The GCC and the EU's New Global Strategy
For the GCC States, a different Europe to deal with
GCC-Russia Relations: Lot of Rhetoric but Little Substance
    GRC Commentary
Earth Day 2016: The Promised Day
An Evolving Saudi-US Relationship
Water and Jobs: Hitting Two Birds with One Stone!
    GRC Press Release
Gulf Research Center press releases to the media
    GRC Publications
Salalah: The Economic Development and Spatial Fragmentation of a Globalized Port City in Southern Oman
Domestic Ramifications of the JCPOA for Iran
GCC and Russia: A View from Moscow
    GRC Newsletters/Bulletins

Enter your email to get the Newsletter
Go
A Note on Syrian Refugees in the Gulf: Attempting to Assess Data and Policies
      
Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Terms & Conditions | About Us |
Weather | Qibla Directions | Hijri Date Conversion Tool
Full Page :total time:0  |   35-- 35 Middle Page :0  --   | Right : 35 - 35--en--sess-enreq-en-coming