Home Page - Gulf in the Media
HomePoliticsEconomy                               Set Gulfinthemedia.com as home page
Opinions
"Postings of opinions published in the Gulf and international newspapers
 Print  Send This Page
Save Listen to this Article
Erdogan Threats as an Alternative to Oglu's Diplomacy?   

Al Hayat - 25 April, 2012
Author: George Semaan

In light of the new wave of tensions between Ankara and Baghdad, Turkey’s eastern gates will no longer be wide open. Indeed, during the last three years, Davutoglu’s diplomacy endured consecutive setbacks and became engaged in an open confrontation on more than one front, from Israel to Russia, to Iran, Iraq and Syria. Hence, it will face decisive choices in parallel to the emergence of the new map of the Greater Middle East, amid the transformations witnessed in the region and both their expected and unexpected repercussions.

Turkey has never found itself in such a sensitive spot. Since 2002, the Justice and Development Party tried to turn it into an unavoidable power between two worlds and a strategic position between the East and the West. It thus resided on contradicting, even conflicting edges, sought rapprochement with Europe without this affecting its solid relations with the United States, and attempted to build strategic partnerships with neighboring states in the Greater Middle East, as well as on the outskirts of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia, including its Muslim states and the Caucasus. It accomplished a lot, from its role in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan, to its mediation in the peace process in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear file. As to its zero-problem policy, it allowed its economy and commerce to prosper and grow at a fast pace, to the point where it appeared that Ankara was no longer in a hurry to meet the European Union conditions to accede to the EU.

Turkey benefited from the dismantlement of the regional order in the Middle East, the mounting conflict between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the weakness which affected Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But as the picture drastically changed in the region with the eruption of the Arab spring, it found itself at a crossroads. Indeed, it was no longer able to live in two worlds or along two conflicting courses, which will apparently never converge. It was no longer able to combine the contradictions in one policy by hosting – for example – part of NATO’s missile shield, while reassuring Russia or Iran about its neutrality and ability to mediate in the nuclear issue. It could no longer present itself as an ideal model for the new regimes of the Arab spring, sponsor the Syrian opposition in the battle to topple the regime in Damascus and agree with Moscow and Tehran over the future of Syria. It could no longer engage in coordination with the Arab League member states and especially the Gulf states, and convince the Iranian command it is standing at an equal distance between all the sides.

The peoples that underwent the Arab spring expressed the rise of Sunni political Islam which will in no way stand alongside Iran that has lost a wide portion of Arab sympathy for several reasons, including the utter support it is offering to the regime in Damascus and the adoption of an escalation policy toward the Gulf states, the last facets of which having been seen in President Ahmadinejad’s visit to the occupied Emirati Island of Abu Musa, and the threats it is issuing every day, either toward Bahrain and its neighbors or toward Turkey which used to present itself as a model for the rising regimes in the Arab world. At this level, Tehran’s disgruntlement vis-à-vis the Arab and Western promotion of this “moderate” model represented by Turkey is no secret to anyone, along with Russia’s non-reassurance toward Ankara’s support and welcoming of the Arab uprisings.

But the Arab spring was not the only reason behind the tensions between Turkey and Iran, and their divergent positions toward the Syrian crisis were not the ones that caused the escalation of the problem. The situation grew more complicated after Turkey hosted NATO’s missile shield, which is perceived by the Islamic Republic and Russia as being primarily directed against them. Ankara widened the confrontation with Tehran, while the developments in Iraq generated new tensions. Indeed, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only received Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi who is wanted by Baghdad for trial, but also joined the president of the Kurdistan province, Massoud Barzani, in addressing harsh criticisms against Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Moreover, the statements exchanged between them featured a sectarian tone that could escalate the sectarian conflict throughout the region. Hence, Ankara clearly sided with Arab and Gulf capitals in the face of the policy adopted by the leader of the State of Law Coalition and his positions which go in line with Tehran’s.

There is no need to explain the reasons pushing Turkey to attack Al-Maliki’s government. Since the beginning, Turkey stood behind the al-Iraqiya bloc and its leader Iyad Allawi, and was not reassured by the Iranian support enjoyed by the leader of the State of Law Coalition. Furthermore, Erdogan’s government did not appreciate the policy of exclusion and monopolization followed by Al-Maliki, along with his government’s excessive defense of the Syrian regime and his policy toward his Gulf neighbors and the Bahraini crisis. Beyond that, Ankara fears the undermining of the balance or the current quotas system, as this could undermine the relations between Iraq’s sectarian, denominational and ethnic components and allow one side to prevail over the other in a way that leads to the increase of Iranian influence in the country and threatens its unity and independence - with all the repercussions that this could carry on all the neighbors, mainly Turkey.

The honeymoon between Ankara and Tehran did not last long. Two years ago, Erdogan - along with Brazil - went against the Western wish and tried in vain to keep the chalice of the sanctions away from Iran. But a few days ago, Tehran opposed Istanbul’s hosting of the last talks with the P5+1 states, and was able to move the second meeting to Baghdad. Moreover, the resistance front that was announced by Ahmadinejad during his visit to Lebanon two years ago and in the context of which he placed Turkey, alongside Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, never saw the light. But despite that, there is still a thin line linking the two countries, considering that they both need each other. Indeed, commercial exchange between them amounted to around $ 16 billion last year, while Iran needs Turkey in light of the blockade and the sanctions. As to the latter, it does not wish to cut the last ties since it imports its oil and gas needs from the Islamic Republic (via gas pipelines from Tabriz to Ankara), as well as from Russia. Moreover, there is the issue of the Kurds in Iraq which imposes coordination between the two countries to confront any Kurdish aspiration to establish an independent state.

The mounting alignment in the Middle East and the international divide over the developments witnessed in it, will force Turkey to reconsider its policy and diplomacy. The more the Syrian crisis is prolonged, the more complicated the situation in Iraq becomes and the more relations between Iran, Russia and Asian powers such as China among others are enhanced, while Turkey will find itself obligated to drastically change its policy, and maybe even its direction. So will it turn toward Europe and NATO once again, or will it deepen its growing relations with the Arab states that perceive it as being a force that could tilt the flawed balance of powers in favor of the Islamic Republic of Iran the other way?

The policy of intimidation, warnings and threats to intervene launched by Erdogan during his campaign against Al-Maliki’s government will not change anything on the ground. It rather reveals Turkey’s weakness and confusion in light of the failures which affected its foreign policy following the accomplishments it had secured throughout the years which preceded this drastic change at the level of the regional map. There is no need to recall the outcome of Ankara’s positions toward Israel and the threats it issued to lift the blockade which has been imposed on Gaza since the Israeli war on the Strip at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, and after the Marmara Ship massacre. There is no need to recall the threats issued by the Turkish officials on the eve of the eruption of the uprising in Syria, to the point where some thought that Turkey was going to imminently mobilize its troops in order to protect the demonstrators, if not to try and topple the regime in Damascus.
 
'We want to feel proud'
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2014-10-29
Author : Intisaar Al-Ma'tooq
When a local investor failed to continue pulling the economic rope in his country, it became necessary to look for other investors with adequate capability to hold and pull the...
Only in Kuwait – Part 4
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-29
Author : Talal Al-Ghannam
Only in Kuwait poor taxi drivers are chased by the police no matter where they stop for the ride, even at legal stop points. I wonder why there are taxis...
It's time to get to work
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-29
Author : Abd Al-Rahman Alyan
His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah opened the 14th session of Kuwait's National Assembly yesterday, urging lawmakers and the government to control spending and diversify Kuwait's economy...
Granting citizenship to the children of Saudi mothers will enrich our culture
Source : Saudi Gazette  
Date : 2014-10-29
Author : Tariq A. Al-Maeena
About a year ago, a popular Emirati writer suggested in a widely read Gulf newspaper that expatriates living in the UAE should be given citizenship if they so desired. ...
Nothing Islamic about IS
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2014-10-29
Author : Abdulateef Al-Mulhim
A few days ago, a video released by the self-ascribed Islamic State (IS) showed an Australian teenage boy threatening western leaders. He was later identified as 17-year-old runaway boy who...
ISIS could prompt what millions of refugees didn’t
Source : Al Arabiya TV  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Manuel Almeida
"We have to get [the Kurds] better land under U.N. control and to put those people in the Iraqi territory and take care of them", said President of Turkey Turgut...
The Middle East needs growth and jobs now more than ever
Source : Asharq Al-Awsat  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Masood Ahmed
This fall has brought yet another negative shift in sentiment about the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As the world’s policymakers left Washington after the IMF/World Bank Annual...
The Beautiful Face of an Ugly Regime
Source : Asharq Al-Awsat  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Diana Mukkaled
In this day and age, with its proliferation of images and videos online, it is easy to become bewitched by a beautiful face and a sweet-sounding voice....
Well done Custodian
Source : Arab Times  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Ahmed Al-Jarallah
Possession of state-owned land by putting one’s hands on it is common in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This happens when a supposed beneficiary goes to the court, claiming he...
Media war against terror
Source : Kuwait Times  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Shamlan Al-Essa
Kuwait is hosting an international conference to discuss means of halting campaigns of recruiting jihadists in Iraq and Syria, particularly through the Internet and social media....
IS: A monster created by many countries
Source : The Peninsula  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Abolhassan Bani-Sadr
Islamic State (IS) could not have emerged without support from western powers and their regional allies. These facilitated the travel of jihadists from 80 countries into Syria, funded them, and...
Iran's hardliners not the biggest threat to N-deal
Source : The Peninsula  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Trita Parsi
Negotiations with Iran over the future of its nuclear programme have not even concluded yet some members of Congress are preparing to manufacture a political crisis over a deal....
What's new about our New Year?!
Source : Saudi Gazette  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Khaled M. Batarfi
As I came out of the Singaporean airplane, an airport official came up to greet me. He was all smiles as he welcomed me to Singapore. Another official from the...
No need to panic over IMF warning
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
On Oct. 25 Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued a warning of sorts to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Curb spending or risk budget...
No mercy for terrorists
Source : Arab News  
Date : 2014-10-28
Author : Linda S. Heard
I used to try to understand the mentality of human beings who turn into monsters whose goal in life is to bomb, torture and rape innocents to achieve their political...
Total 200 Results in 14 Pages
  2 
For more news, views and reports about this topic, please subscribe
to GRC website: www.grc.net
Fri Oct 31, 2014| 07-محرم-1436هـ
Iran wants sanctions lifted as part of nuclear deal
Saudi investors keen to promote UK trade ties
Hezbollah's claim Saudi Arabia backs terror groups rubbished
UAE textile exports up 7.75% at $ 1.6 billion
UN envoy proposes zones to 'freeze' Syria fighting
QIF: Qatar economy's long-term prospects 'remain compelling'
Kuwait prioritizes protection of human rights - Envoy
EU, GCC to strengthen civil aviation cooperation
Palestinian leader, Arab League hail Swedish recognition of Palestine
Funds bullish on Gulf markets despite oil slide
Bahrain elections on November 22
Profits of petchem sector up 12% to SR28bn in 9 months
ISIS massacred 220 tribesmen in Iraq
GCC lighting sector to hit $ 3.7 billion
Kuwait welcomes Sweden's recognition of Palestinian statehood
Qatar banks' asset base sees QR78bn gain in 9 months: KPMG
    Newspaper Editorials
UAE business model a shining example
Women in workplace
More>>  
    Opinions
Will Egypt Mediate for Assad?
No to dual citizenship
More>>  
    GCC Press Agencies
Day's main stories from the GCC Press Agencies
    Reports
Justice in Transition in Yemen
The United Arab Emirates (UAE): Issues for US Policy
More>>  
    Bank Reports
GCC Markets Performance – May 2014
Saudi Arabia: Baseline Macroeconomic Forecast 2014-16
More>>  
    GRC Analysis
Saudi Arabia and the ASEAN Periphery: Cambodia, Myanmar, and Brunei
NATO and the Future of Gulf Security.
Saudi-Vietnam Relations
    GRC Commentary
Price of not heeding Kingdom's advice
On Relations between Rulers and Citizens: The Need for a New Social/Political Contract in the GCC States
Key Issue Facing the Saudi Ruling House.
    GRC Book Review
Beyond Regionalism? Regional Cooperation, Regionalism and Regionalization in the Middle East
India, GCC and the Global Energy Regime: Exploring Interdependence and Outlook for Collaboration.
    GRC Press Release
Gulf Research Center press releases to the media
    GRC Publications
GCC-Asia Ties and Collective Security
Perpetuating the Rentier State: Patrimonialism in a Globalized World
Labor Market Integration in the GCC Countries
    GRC Newsletters/Bulletins

Enter your email to get the Newsletter
Go
      
Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Terms & Conditions | About Us |
Weather | Qibla Directions | Hijri Date Conversion Tool
Full Page :total time:0  |   23-- 23 Middle Page :0  --   | Right : 23 - 23--en--sess-enreq-en-coming