Backed by enormous energy resources, Qatar is set to generate a current account surplus of 31.8% of GDP this year, a leading market researcher has said in its forecast.

According to Business Monitor International (BMI), Qatar will also generate current account surplus averaging 27.7% of GDP until 2016, facilitating “further capital outflows” from the country.

Current account surplus means Qatar will be producing and exporting more than what it is importing and consuming. In other words, the country will be saving huge amounts of money, enabling it to make investments abroad and create foreign assets.

BMI has also revised Qatar’s GDP growth this year and in 2013 in view of what it said the “government’s spending package” announced recently.

“We now expect Qatar’s real GDP to grow by 8.1% in 2012, compared with our previous forecast of 7.8%. However, escalating inflationary pressures – which will dull the impact of public-sector wage hikes – have caused us to revise down our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 from 6.6% to 5.8%”, BMI said even as it emphasised Qatar’s “broader growth outlook remains largely unchanged”.

Last year, Qatar made a 120% hike in the salary of Qatari military personnel and 60% for nationals in the public sector, which was soon followed by semi-government and many private establishments.

BMI also revised up its inflation projection for Qatar owing to “larger-than-expected wage increases” for nationals and the latest data from the Qatar Statistics Authority, which points to “escalating upward pressure” on consumer prices.

BMI has pencilled in average inflation of 3.5% in 2012 compared with its previous forecast of 3% this year.

The researcher, however, says the outlook might be impacted in the event of a pronounced global economic downturn and Qatar’s heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector.

“Given the economy’s heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a pronounced global economic downturn – if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas – could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatar’s external account position, budget and growth outlook.

“That said, we highlight that the country’s $ 60bn sovereign wealth fund – as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets – provides the economy with significant bulwarks against these risks,” BMI said.

At the recent United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) in Doha, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, QIA, said this year it had more than $ 30bn to invest.

Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has made substantial and diversified holdings in sectors ranging from real estate to power utility, retail department store, financial sector and agriculture.