Wednesday's attack in Syria is a turning point in the struggle between the regime and the Syrian people. The death of three top officials - widely seen as the ones behind the massacres - is a severe blow to Assad. If anything, their death marked the beginning of the end of a regime that has rejected a political transition of power.
As the crisis unfolded, observers began sharing some key insights into the balance of power within the circle around Assad. The militant wing — which believes in the inevitability of a regime”s win — has prevented Assad from contemplating any solution other than the military one. The three top officials who were killed in the deadly attack belong to this militant group. Because of their direct control of events on the ground, they escalated the crisis thus putting Assad himself in a no return mood.
Although Assad seems to be in uncompromising mood in the immediate aftermath of the deadly attack on his top leaders, his morals reached an unprecedented low point. Whether or not the regime will restore the initiative remains to be seen. And yet, the general impression is that the killing of three top leaders may be the last nail in the coffin of Assad”s regime.
By most accounts, the Syrian Free Army is fighting tooth and nail to press the regime into submission. While this is easier said than done, the battle has reached Damascus and the regime may be on the brink of defeat. Contrary to what the regime has been saying, there have been key and substantial defections in the army. Those who belittled the impact of defection need to rethink their position in light of the new deadly attack against Assad”s top officials. The accuracy of the attack and the successful intelligence gathering on the eve of the attack would have not been possible without the contribution of the defected officers.
More importantly, after this qualitative attack, many Syrians will feel that Assad”s grip on power has weakened. For this reason, many Syrians will be emboldened to join the revolution and gain their freedom.
For the first time during the Syrian uprising, members of Assad”s house paid a heavy price. Assef Shawkat, Assad”s brother-in-law and deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, was a key player in the regime. A maternal cousin, Hafez Makhlouf, was also struck down by the attack. Whom Assad can turn to? It is difficult not to see how some of his close friends began giving up on him and some began ganging up on him. It is true that his brother is loyal to him, but there are rumors about the readiness of others to jump off the sinking ship of Assad.
And yet, Assad is not expected to surrender easily. He sure will put up tough fight against his opponents. Therefore, Syria will witness more massacres and unnecessary killings. Now the role of the international community is to stop dealing with the Syrian crisis from mere narrow interests of key powers. The regime in Damascus should be besieged regionally and internationally. While Russia and Iran are still playing a negative role in the crisis, they understand that there is a limit of what they can afford to offer.
Let us not forget that Syria”s neighbors fear the scenario of a civil war. In fact, one of the arguments advanced by Assad was that his downfall would not lead to democracy but to anarchy and civil war. He tried his best to remind the world that his reign is good for all. One of his relatives went as far as flirting with Israel when he said that Syria under Assad had always been safer for Israel.
As people no longer buy into this opinion, Syria”s neighbors understand that deciding the crisis is in their best interests. As they cannot prevent the downfall of Assad regime, they come to the conclusion that they should be ready for assistance to the Syrian people whenever the need arise. For this reason, Jordanians for instance, have stepped up their anti-Assad rhetoric.
In brief, Assad”s days in power are numbered. But if he were allowed to go on with his massacres unchecked, the price would be higher for everyone. This is the time where Syrians would like to see the international community and neighbors make the real historic choice by siding with the rebels.