The Syrian Regime's Strategic Failure |
Al Hayat - 19 July, 2012
Author: Abdullah Iskandar
Syria is quickly heading towards direct, generalized and comprehensive civil war throughout the country, after all the oppression, detention and killing methods and the use of all sorts of weapons enjoyed by the regular army failed to get the people to stop their protests.
In the meantime, political solutions are being obstructed by known factors, and only the sound of killing and armed confrontations is being heard. This gives the impression that the approach related to the settlement of the battle militarily is still prevailing, and that more killing and destruction will be carried out to stifle the demands raised by the opposition.
It has also become clear that the Syrian political opposition is unable to push toward changing the balance of power, in a way that limits the Russian, Chinese and Iranian support offered to the regime and rendering its international and regional isolation beyond any doubt, in the hope it would reconsider its ongoing killing strategy. Hence, arms are the only rhetoric in managing this conflict, which pushed the Free Army to use them after it was able to move the armed confrontations wherever it could, and finally reached the capital.
This major development seen in the transfer of the battles to the heart and streets of Damascus, means among other things that the Free Army has gone from defending the demonstrators targeted by the regime’s army and thugs, to attacking the strongholds of this regime. This strategic transformation is based on the increase of the Free Army’s strength, against the backdrop of wide-scale defections carried out by high-ranking officers, whose competence was made us of in the confrontation. It is also based on the acquisition of weapons, whether from the regime’s warehouses or from abroad, in a way that has imposed some kind of parity in the direct confrontations.
In other words, the material elements leading toward the continuation of civil war until an undetermined period of time are available, with all the human, political and economic catastrophes it is causing.
In light of this bleak situation, there is no going backwards, especially after the war reached the streets of the capital and is ongoing along all the friction lines in all the other areas throughout the country.
In case the impasse regarding a political solution continues due to the stringent Russian position in supporting the Syrian regime, it is not unlikely to see the confrontations feature the gathering of the forces of each side in specific areas, which will necessarily cause division among the population, in addition to depletion, reaching some sort of schism on the field - which will not be overcome in the foreseeable future.
This is the course towards which the regime has pushed through its reliance on the security solution since the first demonstration, and it is unlikely that the ruling circles will stop for one moment to consider this catastrophic track to which they have led the country.
Let us believe for one moment the tales of the regime about the crisis, its reasons and the ways to handle it. Since day one, it announced that Jihadist groups were killing the civilians and military men alike, and that it was about to introduce reforms guaranteeing plurality and transparency.
However, this regime which was not only unable to confront these groups but also to convince anyone about its reforms, saw the expansion of the confrontations and their transformation into comprehensive civil war that reached the capital. Should this reality not force the regime to contemplate the situation?
Such a failed regime in deterring a dangerous security problem which is leading the country towards the brink of sectarian division should leave immediately, not only because it is a dictatorial, oppressive and corrupt regime, but also because it is a failure on the security level and in maintaining the unity of the state which it has always claimed was targeted by a conspiracy. This regime should leave immediately because it even failed to implement the strategy it drew up and the task it is claiming to be carrying out.