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Endgame in Syria   

The Peninsula - 19 July, 2012

The battle against Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has entered his palace. For the first time since the uprising began sixteen months ago, Assad must have realized, conclusively, that his fall is imminent.

He will no longer be able to able to repeat those so-called bold, but false, statements about the rebellion being the handiwork of a disgruntled few who are acting at the behest of foreign forces. Self-denial has only hastened the fall of dictators and it’s up to Assad to decide whether he would let history repeat itself, or act boldly to avoid further bloodshed.

The blast in Damascus yesterday at the National Security building, during a meeting of cabinet ministers, which is the deadliest assault on government officials since uprising began, has struck at the heart of Assad’s rule.

Three of Assad’s top commanders - Defence Minister Daoud Rajha, Assad’s brother-in-law Assef Shawkat and Hassan Turkmani, a top military official - were killed in the blast.

Shawkat in particular was a pillar of Assad’s rule. Intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar and Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim Al Shaar were also wounded. Assad will not be able to recover from this blow.

The uprising in Syria is nearing its end because the latest attack has put the rebels in command.

The coming days will see intense fighting in Damascus and the death toll is expected to spiral as Assad’s forces try to take revenge for yesterday’s blasts.

It will also demoralize Assad’s forces, whose key generals have already defected. Fissures in the army ranks are likely to deepen.

While rebels are making progress on the ground, diplomatic efforts to find a solution are stalling. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, is struggling to convince leaders of Syria’s major allies, China and Russia, to back tougher action against the regime to stop the violence.

Ban met Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, in Beijing on Wednesday ahead of a vote on the Western resolution that links the renewal of a UN mission in Syria with a threat to impose sanctions if the regime does not pull back heavy weapons.

But indications are that there is little chance the resolution will be adopted by a divided Security Council. The key stumbling block is the Western demand for the resolution to impose non-military sanctions, which is tied to Chapter VII of the UN Charter, and which could eventually pave the way for military force to end the conflict in Syria.

Russia, is reportedly opposed to any mention of non-military sanctions or Chapter VII, but the US and its European allies insist it must be included in a new resolution.

The blasts also mean the door is closing on chances of peace. And Russia and China must realize that they have aligned with the losing side.
 
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